If history is the guide, the majority of Bluffton and Richland Township voters will support the Republican presidential candidate on Nov. 8.

But, as the May primary results show, there is room for doubt in the election.

However, The Icon’s analysis of presidential voting patterns here since 1908 reflecting history as the guide will probably mean a Republican win.

Consider the following show of Republican political strength in this community:

• In the past 27 presidential elections, starting with 1908, the Republican presidential candidate carried Bluffton and Richland Township voters 24 times.

• During that same period, nationally, the Democrat presidential candidate won 14 elections and the Republican candidate won 13.

• As of 2012, Bluffton and Richland Township Republicans outnumbered Democrats 2 to 1. There are 1,921 registered Republicans and 978 registered Democrats.

• Since the election of 1908 Democrats only won four times with only two candidates: Franklin Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson.

• The most recent election when a Democrat carried Bluffton and Richland Township was 80 years ago. Put another way: There’s no personal memory of a Democrat win here since no one in Bluffton or the township who voted in 1936 is living today.

• One of the four elections won by a Democrat was in 1932. That year Roosevelt defeated Hoover, the standing president, by only 1 vote in Bluffton.

• Of the four elections when local voters supported Democrat presidential candidates, two were for Franklin Roosevelt and the other two were prior to women gaining the right to vote in 1920.

• In one of the largest presidential landslides ever – in 1964 when Lyndon Johnson, Democrat, won 48 states   - Bluffton and Richland Township supported Barry Goldwater.

On the other hand – room for doubt:

In the May 2016 Ohio primary election Bluffton and Richland Township Democrat and Republican voters revealed views contrary to national trends.

Republican voters supported Kasich, not Trump; Democrats supported Sanders, not Clinton. The results below demonstrate local sentiment.

Given Bluffton Republicans support for a moderate candidate and Democrats support for a liberal candidate in May, it will be interesting to see how the two parties choose candidates on Nov. 8.

May 2016 primary results

Republican                   Cruz         Kasich      Rubio Trump
Bluffton A                        60             198             10          69
Bluffton B                        70             121              4            58
Bluffton C                        61             158              7            83           
Bluffton total              191             477             21       210

Richland A                       56           154                3            83
Richland B                       71           174                7            70
Richland total             127           328              10          153

Democrat                        Clinton            Sanders
 Bluffton A                         72                           59
Bluffton B                          49                           89
Bluffton C                          29                           50
Bluffton total                150                        198
 
Richland A                        34                          24
Richland B                        21                          29
Richland total               55                           53

The following results are also available in a printer-friendly attachment at the bottom of this story. Here are Bluffton's presidential election results since 1908.

2016                   BLUFFTON        RICHLAND TWN

Trump – R                  ???                   ???
Clinton – D                 ???                   ???

2012
Romney – R                1,127              794
+Obama – D                  721              255

2008
McCain – R                 1,058              796
+Obama – D                   715             294

2004
+Bush – R                   1,054              840
Kerry – D                      515              222

2000
+ Bush – R                  953                 737
Gore – D                     455                 212
Nader                         60                   15

1996
Dole – R                      780                 634
+Clinton – D               500                 229

1992
Bush – R                     808                 590
+Clinton – D               438                 219

1988
+Bush – R                   983                 670
Dukasis – D                426                 212

1984
+Reagan - R               824                 709
Mondale – D              362                 157

1980
+Reagan – R               885                 601
Carter – D                  436                 207

1976
Ford – R                      830                 427
+Carter – D                517                 230

1972
+Nixon – R                 825                 512
McGovern – D            512                 143

1968
+Nixon – R                 726                 454
Humphrey – D           311                   59
Wallace                       76                   59

1964
Goldwater – R            559                 408
+Johnson – D             511                 249

1960
Nixon – R                    943                 513
+Kennedy – D            256                 135

1956
+Eisenhower – R       946                 509
Stevenson – D           236                 135

1952
+Eisenhower – R       925                 490
Stevenson – D           315                 140

1948
Dewey – R                  650                 295
+Truman – D             338                 203

1944
Dewey – R                  760                 341
+Roosevelt – D           366                 155

1940
Willkie – R                  739                 476
+Roosevelt – D           476                 246

1936
Landon – R                 477                 215
+Roosevelt – D           668                 398

1932
Hoover – R                 503                 183
+Roosevelt – D           504                 382

1928
+Hoover – R               679                 288
Smith – D                   220                 171

1924
+Coolidge – R             440                 152
Davis – D                    358                 231

1920
+Harding – R             483                 190
Cox – D                       407                 248

1916
Hughes – R                 153                    71
+Wilson – D               280                 281

1912
Taft – R                         78                   29
+ Wilson –D               231                 241
Roosevelt                      59                   37

1908
+Taft – R                    314                 207
Bryan – D                   179                 29*
*no report in Richland South in 1908
+ Presidential winner